Today's the big day, in which Hillary Clinton pins her hopes on the democratic party's Rules & Bylaws Committee to change the rules in the middle of the game, to her benefit.
For the past few weeks, Senator Clinton's been championing the cause of the Florida and Michigan voters, and the DNC's decision to not seat the delegates from these states. Of course, Clinton said nothing when these rules were imposed last year, only discovering her voters' rights activism when she began losing to Senator Obama.
I watched about 40 minutes of the proceedings this morning, before finally turning it off in disgust. Florida state senator Joyner insists on seating all the delegates, as the votes were cast, in spite of the fact that Florida voters had previously been told their votes would not count. Why does this matter? Because the state has 4 million registered voters, and only 1.7 million turned out to vote in the primary. Joyner's concerned with disenfranchising these 1.7 million, but doesn't seem concerned with the other 2.3. IMHO, the only way to resolve Florida is to hold a new primary, which the state already decided not to do.
Florida state representative Wexler, on the other hand, proposed a concession from the Obama campaign, proposing the Florida delegates be seated at 50%, per the DNC rules. They don't support seating the full delegation, as the rules specifically limit seating to 50%. This will give Clinton an additional 19 delegates, which is still not sufficient to put her within reach of the party nomination. Shy the Rules Committee seating Florida and Michigan fully, Obama will still become the party nominee.
One member of the committee asked Wexler why seating half the delegates would lead to party unity, rather than seating the full set of delegates. Wexler didn't answer the question directly, instead pointing out that the rules only allow for half the delegates to be seated. My answer to the question is that party unity cannot be accomplished without holding a new election, allowing all 4 million voters to have their say. Further, the decision to strip the delegates was based upon Florida's decision to move its primary ahead of Super Tuesday, in violation of the committee's rules, and the punishment must remain in effect. If the Rules Committee can't stick to its guns, it loses all credibility in enforcing party bylaws. In 2012 we may well see other states move their primaries forward, in violation of DNC rules, knowing that the committee won't have the testicular fortitude to enforce its own policies.
Michigan's another matter. Obama, again following the rules, removed his name from the ballot and had no representation there. Clinton remained on the ballot, and by her math won the state handily. But again, she's conflicting her own ideas regarding voters' rights. Since no votes were cast for Obama, those who support him will have no voice if Michigan is seated. Michigan party officials are proposing full seating of the delegation, with a ten point spread in Clinton's favor. This still isn't enough to help her defeat Obama, and is little more than another concession. But again, the only valid way of determining Obama's support within the state is to hold another primary -- which the state rejected, as did Florida.
Interestingly, a large number of labor organizations have come out in favor of Obama. I saw a recent article, posted on
DemConWatch, mentioning 36 recently appointed delegates in Michigan. Of the 36, the names of three could not be found, the nine specified no affiliation with either campaign. Twenty-two, however, support Obama. And of these, many appear to be Teamsters or United Auto Workers. If a new election had been held, I suspect Obama may well have won the state.
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I still don't think Clinton has a chance, and frankly wish she'd just go away. I predict Florida will be seated at half, Michigan will be seated according to their proposal to give Clinton a slight edge, Clinton will take Puerto Rico, Obama will take Montana and South Dakota, and Clinton will throw in the towel by the end of next week. But I could be wrong. She may well try to push this all the way to the convention in August, which would be a mistake. After Tuesday we're going to see McCain and Obama continue to campaign against one another, and the press will lose all interest in Clinton. The superdelegates have been moving heavily in Obama's direction, and if Clinton really does want to "unify the party," getting out of the race is the best way to accomplish that goal.
Labels: Clinton, Election, Obama
